Disparate areas of machine learning have benefited from models that can take raw data with little preprocessing as input and learn rich representations of that raw data in order to perform well on a given prediction task. We evaluate this approach in healthcare by using longitudinal measurements of lab tests, one of the more raw signals of a patient's health state widely available in clinical data, to predict disease onsets. In particular, we train a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network and two novel convolutional neural networks for multi-task prediction of disease onset for 133 conditions based on 18 common lab tests measured over time in a cohort of 298K patients derived from 8 years of administrative claims data. We compare the neural networks to a logistic regression with several hand-engineered, clinically relevant features. We find that the representation-based learning approaches significantly outperform this baseline. We believe that our work suggests a new avenue of patient risk stratification based solely on lab results.

本研究采用机器学习方法，结合各种测量指标，包括检验实验室检测结果等信息，使用 Long Short-Term Memory 和两种卷积神经网络，基于 298K 患者 8 年行政索赔数据中的 18 种常见实验室检测结果，对 133 种疾病风险进行预测，并通过数据实验结果对比分析表明，疾病预测方面基于深度学习的方法有很好的应用前景。

基于纵向实验室检验的多任务疾病发作预测