Objective: In this paper, we develop a personalized real-time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs; the proposed risk scoring system ensures timely intensive care unit (ICU) admissions for clinically deteriorating patients. Methods: The risk scoring system learns a set of latent patient subtypes from the offline electronic health record data, and trains a mixture of Gaussian Process (GP) experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific patient subtype. Transfer learning techniques are used to learn the relationship between a patient's latent subtype and her static admission information (e.g. age, gender, transfer status, ICD-9 codes, etc). Results: Experiments conducted on data from a heterogeneous cohort of 6,321 patients admitted to Ronald Reagan UCLA medical center show that our risk score significantly and consistently outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as the Rothman index, MEWS, APACHE and SOFA scores, in terms of timeliness, true positive rate (TPR), and positive predictive value (PPV). Conclusion: Our results reflect the importance of adopting the concepts of personalized medicine in critical care settings; significant accuracy and timeliness gains can be achieved by accounting for the patients' heterogeneity. Significance: The proposed risk scoring methodology can confer huge clinical and social benefits on more than 200,000 critically ill inpatient who exhibit cardiac arrests in the US every year.

在这篇论文中，我们提出了一种个性化的实时风险评分算法，基于病人的（时间性）实验室测试和生命体征提供及时和细致的临床状况评估，确保临床恶化的病人能够及时转入重症监护室，该风险评分系统通过从离线电子健康记录数据中学习一组潜在的患者亚型，并训练一组高斯过程( GP ) 专家，每个专家可以模拟与特定患者亚型相关的生理数据流，从而实现。

使用高斯过程混合模型进行个性化危险评分以预测危重病情