We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence (score) of a prediction through stochastic inferences in deep neural networks. We first analyze relation between variation of multiple model parameters for a single example inference and variance of the corresponding prediction scores by Bayesian modeling of stochastic regularization. Our empirical observation shows that accuracy and score of a prediction are highly correlated with variance of multiple stochastic inferences given by stochastic depth or dropout. Motivated by these facts, we design a novel variance-weighted confidence-integrated loss function that is composed of two cross-entropy loss terms with respect to ground-truth and uniform distribution, which are balanced by variance of stochastic prediction scores. The proposed loss function enables us to learn deep neural networks that predict confidence calibrated scores using a single inference. Our algorithm presents outstanding confidence calibration performance and improves classification accuracy with two popular stochastic regularization techniques---stochastic depth and dropout---in multiple models and datasets; it alleviates overconfidence issue in deep neural networks significantly by training networks to achieve prediction accuracy proportional to confidence of prediction.

本文提出了一种深度学习置信度和准确性校准的通用方法，基于随机推断对网络的预测结果进行置信度和准确性分析并设计了一种新型的基于方差加权的置信度综合损失函数，以实现网络置信度的正确预测和校准。实验结果表明该算法有效地解决了深度神经网络在预测置信度上的过度自信问题，且在不同模型和数据集上表现出色。

基于随机推理的深度神经网络单次置信度校准学习