Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing approach for evaluating the calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new evaluation method that escapes this caveat using a simple histogram-based approach inspired by reliability diagrams used in classification tasks. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple scaling-based calibration that preforms well in our experimental tests. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

本文提出了一种新的针对回归任务中不确定性预测校准的方法和评估方法，并通过对合成问题和对COCO和KITTI数据集的物体检测边界框回归任务的实验验证，展示出基于直方图的聚类方法和基于缩放的校准方法的效果相当好。

回归任务中的不确定性预测评估和校准