We evaluate two different methods for the integration of prediction uncertainty into diagnostic image classifiers to increase patient safety in deep learning. In the first method, Monte Carlo sampling is applied with dropout at test time to get a posterior distribution of the class labels (Bayesian ResNet). The second method extends ResNet to a probabilistic approach by predicting the parameters of the posterior distribution and sampling the final result from it (Variational ResNet).The variance of the posterior is used as metric for uncertainty.Both methods are trained on a data set of optical coherence tomography scans showing four different retinal conditions. Our results shown that cases in which the classifier predicts incorrectly correlate with a higher uncertainty. Mean uncertainty of incorrectly diagnosed cases was between 4.6 and 8.1 times higher than mean uncertainty of correctly diagnosed cases. Modeling of the prediction uncertainty in computer-aided diagnosis with deep learning yields more reliable results and is anticipated to increase patient safety.

对于集成预测不确定性以提高深度学习患者安全性的图像分类器，我们评估了两种不同的方法。我们发现，这些方法使用光学相干断层扫描的数据集训练，能够得出更可靠的结果，有望提高患者安全性。

计算机辅助诊断中的不确定性量化:让你的模型对模糊病例说“不知道