The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which are typically underspecified by the data, and can represent many compelling but different solutions. We show that deep ensembles provide an effective mechanism for approximate Bayesian marginalization, and propose a related approach that further improves the predictive distribution by marginalizing within basins of attraction, without significant overhead. We also investigate the prior over functions implied by a vague distribution over neural network weights, explaining the generalization properties of such models from a probabilistic perspective. From this perspective, we explain results that have been presented as mysterious and distinct to neural network generalization, such as the ability to fit images with random labels, and show that these results can be reproduced with Gaussian processes. Finally, we provide a Bayesian perspective on tempering for calibrating predictive distributions.

使用贝叶斯较量的关键是无脊柱化，这可以提高现代深度神经网络的准确性和校准性，因为这些网络通常被数据欠规范，可以表示许多引人入胜但不同的解决方案。我们展示了深度集合提供了一个近似贝叶斯无脊柱化的有效机制，并提出了一种相关方法，通过在吸引盆地内进行无脊柱化来进一步提高预测分布，而不需要显着的开销。同时，我们还研究了模糊神经网络权重分布所隐含的函数先验，从概率的角度解释了这些模型的泛化性质。最后，我们提供了一个贝叶斯的视角来温和地校准预测分布。

贝叶斯深度学习与概率泛化的视角