Clinical practice in intensive care units (ICUs) requires early warnings when a patient's condition is about to deteriorate so that preventive measures can be undertaken. To this end, prediction algorithms have been developed that estimate the risk of mortality in ICUs. In this work, we propose a novel generative deep probabilistic model for real-time risk scoring in ICUs. Specifically, we develop an attentive deep Markov model called AttDMM. To the best of our knowledge, AttDMM is the first ICU prediction model that jointly learns both long-term disease dynamics (via attention) and different disease states in health trajectory (via a latent variable model). Our evaluations were based on an established baseline dataset (MIMIC-III) with 53,423 ICU stays. The results confirm that compared to state-of-the-art baselines, our AttDMM was superior: AttDMM achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.876, which yielded an improvement over the state-of-the-art method by 2.2%. In addition, the risk score from the AttDMM provided warnings several hours earlier. Thereby, our model shows a path towards identifying patients at risk so that health practitioners can intervene early and save patient lives.

本文提出了一种新型生成式深度概率模型AttDMM，用于实时风险评分，联合学习了疾病动态和不同健康轨迹下的疾病状态，通过基准数据集(MIMIC-III)验证效果显著，将 ICU 患者生命预警提前数小时，为做出及时干预提供了路径。

AttDMM：一种用于重症监护病房风险评分的注意力深度马尔科夫模型