Evaluating the individual movements for teammates in soccer players is crucial for assessing teamwork, scouting, and fan engagement. It has been said that players in a 90-min game do not have the ball for about 87 minutes on average. However, it has remained difficult to evaluate an attacking player without receiving the ball, and to reveal how movement contributes to the creation of scoring opportunities for teammates. In this paper, we evaluate players who create off-ball scoring opportunities by comparing actual movements with the reference movements generated via trajectory prediction. First, we predict the trajectories of players using a graph variational recurrent neural network that can accurately model the relationship between players and predict the long-term trajectory. Next, based on the difference in the modified off-ball evaluation index between the actual and the predicted trajectory as a reference, we evaluate how the actual movement contributes to scoring opportunity compared to the predicted movement. For verification, we examined the relationship with the annual salary, the goals, and the rating in the game by experts for all games of a team in a professional soccer league in a year. The results show that the annual salary and the proposed indicator correlated significantly, which could not be explained by the existing indicators and goals. Our results suggest the effectiveness of the proposed method as an indicator for a player without the ball to create a scoring chance for teammates.

利用图变分循环神经网络对足球比赛中球员的轨迹进行预测，并对球员在没有球的情况下对进球做出贡献的能力进行评估，结果显示提出的指标与球员的年薪相关性显著，表明该方法可以有效评估球员在没有球的情况下为队友创造进球机会的能力。

通过轨迹预测评估足球中为队友创造得分机会的能力