Machine learning systems show significant promise for forecasting patient adverse events via risk scores. However, these risk scores implicitly encode assumptions about future interventions that the patient is likely to receive, based on the intervention policy present in the training data. Without this important context, predictions from such systems are less interpretable for clinicians. We propose a joint model of intervention policy and adverse event risk as a means to explicitly communicate the model's assumptions about future interventions. We develop such an intervention policy model on MIMIC-III, a real world de-identified ICU dataset, and discuss some use cases that highlight the utility of this approach. We show how combining typical risk scores, such as the likelihood of mortality, with future intervention probability scores leads to more interpretable clinical predictions.

该研究展示了机器学习系统在通过风险评分预测患者不良事件方面的巨大潜力，但未来介入干预政策会对风险评分产生影响，所以在此提出了一种联合模型来更加明确地传达有关未来干预的假设。通过将典型风险评分与未来干预概率评分相结合，可以提供更可解释的临床预测。

通过干预预测提高临床风险评分的可解释性