Deep neural networks for survival prediction outper-form classical approaches in discrimination, which is the ordering of patients according to their time-of-event. Conversely, classical approaches like the Cox Proportional Hazards model display much better calibration, the correct temporal prediction of events of the underlying distribution. Especially in the medical domain, where it is critical to predict the survival of a single patient, both discrimination and calibration are important performance metrics. Here we present Discrete Calibrated Survival (DCS), a novel deep neural network for discriminated and calibrated survival prediction that outperforms competing survival models in discrimination on three medical datasets, while achieving best calibration among all discrete time models. The enhanced performance of DCS can be attributed to two novel features, the variable temporal output node spacing and the novel loss term that optimizes the use of uncensored and censored patient data. We believe that DCS is an important step towards clinical application of deep-learning-based survival prediction with state-of-the-art discrimination and good calibration.

使用离散计算生存（DCS）方法的深度神经网络，通过优化未进行censored处理的患者数据和变量时间输出节点间距等两个新特性，在医学数据集上实现了最优的校准效果，并在区分方面优于其他竞争模型，这是深度学习在临床生存预测中具有最先进的性能指标的重要一步。

基于深度学习的离散校准生存预测