BriefGPT.xyz
Sep, 2022
击败预测者的游戏：Calibeating
"Calibeating": Beating Forecasters at Their Own Game
HTML
PDF
Dean P. Foster, Sergiu Hart
TL;DR
通过Brier评分来识别专业知识，提高预测效果，并提供一种确定性在线程序来实现校准预测，同时扩展结果以连续校准确定性程序。
Abstract
In order to identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by their
calibration
score, which can always be made arbitrarily small, but rather by their
brier score
. The
→