Due to rapidly rising healthcare costs worldwide, there is significant interest in controlling them. An important aspect concerns price transparency, as preliminary efforts have demonstrated that patients will shop for lower costs, driving efficiency. This requires the data to be made available, and models that can predict healthcare costs for a wide range of patient demographics and conditions. We present an approach to this problem by developing a predictive model using machine-learning techniques. We analyzed de-identified patient data from New York State SPARCS (statewide planning and research cooperative system), consisting of 2.3 million records in 2016. We built models to predict costs from patient diagnoses and demographics. We investigated two model classes consisting of sparse regression and decision trees. We obtained the best performance by using a decision tree with depth 10. We obtained an R-square value of 0.76 which is better than the values reported in the literature for similar problems.

利用机器学习技术基于患者诊断和人口统计学数据构建预测模型，并使用决策树方法进行预测，其结果优于先前研究的类似问题报告的结果，因此有望降低医疗保健成本。

用公开的医疗保健数据构建医疗费用预测模型