Problem definition: Access to accurate predictions of patients' outcomes can enhance medical staff's decision-making, which ultimately benefits all stakeholders in the hospitals. A large hospital network in the US has been collaborating with academics and consultants to predict short-term and long-term outcomes for all inpatients across their seven hospitals. Methodology/results: We develop machine learning models that predict the probabilities of next 24-hr/48-hr discharge and intensive care unit transfers, end-of-stay mortality and discharge dispositions. All models achieve high out-of-sample AUC (75.7%-92.5%) and are well calibrated. In addition, combining 48-hr discharge predictions with doctors' predictions simultaneously enables more patient discharges (10%-28.7%) and fewer 7-day/30-day readmissions ($p$-value $<0.001$). We implement an automated pipeline that extracts data and updates predictions every morning, as well as user-friendly software and a color-coded alert system to communicate these patient-level predictions (alongside explanations) to clinical teams. Managerial implications: Since we have been gradually deploying the tool, and training medical staff, over 200 doctors, nurses, and case managers across seven hospitals use it in their daily patient review process. We observe a significant reduction in the average length of stay (0.67 days per patient) following its adoption and anticipate substantial financial benefits (between \$55 and \$72 million annually) for the healthcare system.

本研究使用机器学习算法基于患者数据预测患者短期和长期预后，以及病人的出院去向等重要临床结果，帮助医疗团队提升决策质量并实现有效的医院管理。实施该工具后平均每位患者住院时间减少了0.67天，每年可为医疗系统创造高达5500万至7200万美元的经济效益。

大型医院网络患者预后预测改善运营