Model-based disease mapping remains a fundamental policy-informing tool in public health and disease surveillance with hierarchical Bayesian models being the current state-of-the-art approach. When working with areal data, e.g. aggregates at the administrative unit level such as district or province, routinely used models rely on the adjacency structure of areal units to account for spatial correlations. The goal of disease surveillance systems is to track disease outcomes over time, but this provides challenging in situations of crises, such as political changes, leading to changes of administrative boundaries. Kenya is an example of such country. Moreover, adjacency-based approach ignores the continuous nature of spatial processes and cannot solve the change-of-support problem, i.e. when administrative boundaries change. We present a novel, practical, and easy to implement solution relying on a methodology combining deep generative modelling and fully Bayesian inference. We build on the recent work of PriorVAE able to encode spatial priors over small areas with variational autoencoders, to map malaria prevalence in Kenya. We solve the change-of-support problem arising from Kenya changing its district boundaries in 2010. We draw realisations of the Gaussian Process (GP) prior over a fine artificial spatial grid representing continuous space and then aggregate these realisations to the level of administrative boundaries. The aggregated values are then encoded using the PriorVAE technique. The trained priors (aggVAE) are then used at the inference stage instead of the GP priors within a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme. We demonstrate that it is possible to use the flexible and appropriate model for areal data based on aggregation of continuous priors, and that inference is orders of magnitude faster when using aggVAE than combining the original GP priors and the aggregation step.

通过结合深度生成建模和完全贝叶斯推断的方法，我们解决了基于行政单元的空间相关性模型在行政边界变化时所面临的支持变化问题，从而更好地绘制肯尼亚疟疾患病率地图。

深度学习和MCMC与aggVAE用于调整行政边界: 在肯尼亚绘制疟疾流行地图