Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) has witnessed remarkable advancements in improving the accuracy of models for unlabeled target domains. However, the calibration of predictive uncertainty in the target domain, a crucial aspect of the safe deployment of UDA models, has received limited attention. The conventional in-domain calibration method, \textit{temperature scaling} (TempScal), encounters challenges due to domain distribution shifts and the absence of labeled target domain data. Recent approaches have employed importance-weighting techniques to estimate the target-optimal temperature based on re-weighted labeled source data. Nonetheless, these methods require source data and suffer from unreliable density estimates under severe domain shifts, rendering them unsuitable for source-free UDA settings. To overcome these limitations, we propose PseudoCal, a source-free calibration method that exclusively relies on unlabeled target data. Unlike previous approaches that treat UDA calibration as a \textit{covariate shift} problem, we consider it as an unsupervised calibration problem specific to the target domain. Motivated by the factorization of the negative log-likelihood (NLL) objective in TempScal, we generate a labeled pseudo-target set that captures the structure of the real target. By doing so, we transform the unsupervised calibration problem into a supervised one, enabling us to effectively address it using widely-used in-domain methods like TempScal. Finally, we thoroughly evaluate the calibration performance of PseudoCal by conducting extensive experiments on 10 UDA methods, considering both traditional UDA settings and recent source-free UDA scenarios. The experimental results consistently demonstrate the superior performance of PseudoCal, exhibiting significantly reduced calibration error compared to existing calibration methods.

本文提出了一种基于无标注目标数据的源自由校准方法PseudoCal，该方法解决了无标签目标域数据中目标领域内部不确定性的问题，并在10个UDA方法上展现了出色的校准效果。

PseudoCal: 基于无源方法的领域自适应非监督不确定性校准