Accurate predictions of electricity demands are necessary for managing operations in a small aggregation load setting like a Microgrid. Due to low aggregation, the electricity demands can be highly stochastic and point estimates would lead to inflated errors. Interval estimation in this scenario, would provide a range of values within which the future values might lie and helps quantify the errors around the point estimates. This paper introduces a residual bootstrap algorithm to generate interval estimates of day-ahead electricity demand. A machine learning algorithm is used to obtain the point estimates of electricity demand and respective residuals on the training set. The obtained residuals are stored in memory and the memory is further partitioned. Days with similar demand patterns are grouped in clusters using an unsupervised learning algorithm and these clusters are used to partition the memory. The point estimates for test day are used to find the closest cluster of similar days and the residuals are bootstrapped from the chosen cluster. This algorithm is evaluated on the real electricity demand data from EULR(End Use Load Research) and is compared to other bootstrapping methods for varying confidence intervals.

通过使用残差自举算法进行区间估计，本研究介绍了一种用于获取电力需求的未来估计值的算法。该算法使用机器学习算法获取训练集上的点估计值和对应的残差，并通过无监督学习算法将残差进行分组和分区，以获取最接近测试日的相似日的残差进行自举操作。该算法使用EULR（终端负荷研究）的真实电力需求数据进行评估，并与其他自举方法在不同置信区间上进行比较。

用基于聚类的自助法学习电力需求的区间预测