In the face of climate change-induced droughts, vulnerable regions encounter severe threats to food security, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance. This paper introduces a causal inference framework for the Horn of Africa, aiming to assess the impact of cash-based interventions on food crises. Our contributions encompass identifying causal relationships within the food security system, harmonizing a comprehensive database, and estimating the causal effect of humanitarian interventions on malnutrition. Our results revealed no significant effects, likely due to limited sample size, suboptimal data quality, and an imperfect causal graph resulting from our limited understanding of multidisciplinary systems like food security. This underscores the need to enhance data collection and refine causal models with domain experts for more effective future interventions and policies, improving transparency and accountability in humanitarian aid.

气候变化引起的干旱给脆弱地区的粮食安全带来严重威胁，需要紧急的人道援助。本文介绍了一个用于非洲之角地区的因果推断框架，旨在评估现金援助对粮食危机的影响。我们的贡献包括确定粮食安全系统内的因果关系，协调全面的数据库，并估计人道主义援助对营养不良的因果效应。我们的结果显示没有显著影响，可能是由于样本容量有限、数据质量不佳以及因我们对食品安全等多学科系统的有限理解而导致的不完美因果图。这凸显了需要加强数据收集，与领域专家一起完善因果模型，以实现更有效的未来干预措施和政策，提高人道援助的透明度和责任。

评估人道援助对粮食安全的影响