Accurate uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks (GNNs) is essential, especially in high-stakes domains where GNNs are frequently employed. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a promising framework for quantifying uncertainty by providing $\textit{valid}$ prediction sets for any black-box model. CP ensures formal probabilistic guarantees that a prediction set contains a true label with a desired probability. However, the size of prediction sets, known as $\textit{inefficiency}$, is influenced by the underlying model and data generating process. On the other hand, Bayesian learning also provides a credible region based on the estimated posterior distribution, but this region is $\textit{well-calibrated}$ only when the model is correctly specified. Building on a recent work that introduced a scaling parameter for constructing valid credible regions from posterior estimate, our study explores the advantages of incorporating a temperature parameter into Bayesian GNNs within CP framework. We empirically demonstrate the existence of temperatures that result in more efficient prediction sets. Furthermore, we conduct an analysis to identify the factors contributing to inefficiency and offer valuable insights into the relationship between CP performance and model calibration.

基于构建有效的置信区间的比例估计后验概率分布的缩放参数的最新研究成果，我们的研究探讨了将温度参数纳入基于CP框架的贝叶斯GNN中的优势，并通过实验证明了导致更高效的预测集的温度存在，同时分析了导致非效率的因素，并提供了有关CP性能和模型校准之间关系的有价值见解。

贝叶斯图神经网络在一致预测中的温度