The importance of uncertainty quantification is increasingly recognized in the diverse field of machine learning. Accurately assessing model prediction uncertainty can help provide deeper understanding and confidence for researchers and practitioners. This is especially critical in medical diagnosis and drug discovery areas, where reliable predictions directly impact research quality and patient health. In this paper, we proposed incorporating uncertainty quantification into clinical trial outcome predictions. Our main goal is to enhance the model's ability to discern nuanced differences, thereby significantly improving its overall performance. We have adopted a selective classification approach to fulfill our objective, integrating it seamlessly with the Hierarchical Interaction Network (HINT), which is at the forefront of clinical trial prediction modeling. Selective classification, encompassing a spectrum of methods for uncertainty quantification, empowers the model to withhold decision-making in the face of samples marked by ambiguity or low confidence, thereby amplifying the accuracy of predictions for the instances it chooses to classify. A series of comprehensive experiments demonstrate that incorporating selective classification into clinical trial predictions markedly enhances the model's performance, as evidenced by significant upticks in pivotal metrics such as PR-AUC, F1, ROC-AUC, and overall accuracy. Specifically, the proposed method achieved 32.37\%, 21.43\%, and 13.27\% relative improvement on PR-AUC over the base model (HINT) in phase I, II, and III trial outcome prediction, respectively. When predicting phase III, our method reaches 0.9022 PR-AUC scores. These findings illustrate the robustness and prospective utility of this strategy within the area of clinical trial predictions, potentially setting a new benchmark in the field.

在临床试验结果预测中，将不确定性量化、选择性分类和层次交互网络（HINT）相融合的方法显著提高了模型的性能，其中PR-AUC指标相对基础模型提高了32.37％、21.43％和13.27％，在预测III期试验时达到了0.9022的PR-AUC得分，表明该策略在临床试验预测领域具有鲁棒性和前景潜力。

临床试验结果预测的不确定性量化