Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their proprietary nature and massive scale. In this work, we explore the potential of deriving confidence from the distribution of multiple randomly sampled model generations, via three measures of consistency. We perform an extensive evaluation across various open and closed-source models on nine reasoning datasets. Results show that consistency-based calibration methods outperform existing post-hoc approaches. Meanwhile, we find that factors such as intermediate explanations, model scaling, and larger sample sizes enhance calibration, while instruction-tuning makes calibration more difficult. Moreover, confidence scores obtained from consistency have the potential to enhance model performance. Finally, we offer practical guidance on choosing suitable consistency metrics for calibration, tailored to the characteristics of various LMs.

通过从多个随机抽样的模型生成的分布中导出确定度來提高大型语言模型(LLM)预测的准确度。在多个开放和闭源模型上进行广泛评估，结果表明基于一致性的校准方法优于现有的事后方法，并提供了选择适用于不同LLMs特性的合适一致性度量标准的实用指南。

用样本一致性校准大型语言模型