Recent research on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) raised concern about its potential collapse through a tipping point due to the climate-change caused increase in the freshwater input into the North Atlantic. The predicted time window of collapse is centered about the middle of the century and the earliest possible start is approximately two years from now. More generally, anticipating a tipping point at which the system transitions from one stable steady state to another is relevant to a broad range of fields. We develop a machine-learning approach to predicting tipping in noisy dynamical systems with a time-varying parameter and test it on a number of systems including the AMOC, ecological networks, an electrical power system, and a climate model. For the AMOC, our prediction based on simulated fingerprint data and real data of the sea surface temperature places the time window of a potential collapse between the years 2040 and 2065.

通过机器学习方法，我们预测大西洋经向翻转环流系统（AMOC）的潜在崩溃时间窗口在2040年至2065年之间，这是由于气候变化引起的北大西洋淡水输入的增加导致的，同时还开发了在嘈杂的动力系统中预测临界点的方法。

大西洋经圈环流的倾斜和崩溃的机器学习预测