Precise estimation of cardiac patients' current and future comorbidities is an important factor in prioritizing continuous physiological monitoring and new therapies. ML models have shown satisfactory performance in short-term mortality prediction of patients with heart disease, while their utility in long-term predictions is limited. This study aims to investigate the performance of tree-based ML models on long-term mortality prediction and the effect of two recently introduced biomarkers on long-term mortality. This study utilized publicly available data from CCHIA at the Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taiwan, China. Medical records were used to gather demographic and clinical data, including age, gender, BMI, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) status, and comorbidities such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and non-STEMI. Using medical and demographic records as well as two recently introduced biomarkers, brachial pre-ejection period (bPEP) and brachial ejection time (bET), collected from 139 patients with acute myocardial infarction, we investigated the performance of advanced ensemble tree-based ML algorithms (random forest, AdaBoost, and XGBoost) to predict all-cause mortality within 14 years. The developed ML models achieved significantly better performance compared to the baseline LR (C-Statistic, 0.80 for random forest, 0.79 for AdaBoost, and 0.78 for XGBoost, vs 0.77 for LR) (P-RF<0.001, PAdaBoost<0.001, PXGBoost<0.05). Adding bPEP and bET to our feature set significantly improved the algorithms' performance, leading to an absolute increase in C-Statistic of up to 0.03 (C-Statistic, 0.83 for random forest, 0.82 for AdaBoost, and 0.80 for XGBoost, vs 0.74 for LR) (P-RF<0.001, PAdaBoost<0.001, PXGBoost<0.05). This advancement may enable better treatment prioritization for high-risk individuals.

该研究调查了树模型在长期死亡预测上的表现，并研究了两种近期引入的生物标志物对长期死亡的影响。研究采用来自中国台湾卫生福利部的CCHIA公开数据，以及从139例急性心肌梗死患者收集的医学和人口统计学数据，使用先进的集成树模型算法预测了14年内的全因死亡率，并发现添加生物标志物后算法的性能有所提高，可更好地为高风险个体确定治疗优先级。

Machine learning predicts long-term mortality after acute myocardial
  infarction using systolic time intervals and routinely collected clinical
  data

机器学习预测急性心肌梗死后的长期死亡率：基于收集的收缩时间间隔和临床数据