The discussion on causality in human history dates back to ancient Greece, yet to this day, there is still no consensus. Fundamentally, this stems from the nature of human cognition, as understanding causality requires abstract tools to transcend the limitations of human cognition. In recent decades, the rapid development of mathematical and computational tools has provided new theoretical and technical means for exploring causality, creating more avenues for investigation. Based on this, this paper introduces a new definition of causality using category theory, proposed by Samuel Eilenberg and Saunders Mac Lane in 1945 to avoid the self-referential contradictions in set theory, notably the Russell paradox. Within this framework, the feasibility of indicator synthesis in causal inference is demonstrated. Due to the limitations in the development of category theory-related technical tools, this paper adopts the widely-used probabilistic causal graph tool proposed by Judea Pearl in 1995 to study the application of causal inference in personal credit risk management. The specific work includes: research on the construction method of causal inference index system, definition of causality and feasibility proof of indicator synthesis causal inference within this framework, application methods of causal graph model and intervention alternative criteria in personal credit risk management, and so on.

本文介绍了一种基于范畴论的新的因果关系定义，并在此框架下论证了指标综合因果推断的可行性，同时还探讨了因果图模型和干预替代标准在个人信用风险管理中的应用方法。

基于因果推断的个人信用风险评估方法研究