Field experiments and computer simulations are effective but time-consuming methods of measuring the quality of engineered systems at different settings. To reduce the total time required, experimenters may employ Bayesian optimization, which is parsimonious with measurements, and take measurements of multiple settings simultaneously, in a batch. In practice, experimenters use very few batches, thus, it is imperative that each batch be as informative as possible. Typically, the initial batch in a Batch Bayesian Optimization (BBO) is constructed from a quasi-random sample of settings values. We propose a batch-design acquisition function, Minimal Terminal Variance (MTV), that designs a batch by optimization rather than random sampling. MTV adapts a design criterion function from Design of Experiments, called I-Optimality, which minimizes the variance of the post-evaluation estimates of quality, integrated over the entire space of settings. MTV weights the integral by the probability that a setting is optimal, making it able to design not only an initial batch but all subsequent batches, as well. Applicability to both initialization and subsequent batches is novel among acquisition functions. Numerical experiments on test functions and simulators show that MTV compares favorably to other BBO methods.

采用Bayesian optimization的Minimal Terminal Variance (MTV)方法通过优化设计而非随机抽样选择实验批次，并应用于初始批次和后续批次，以减少设计和评估工程系统质量所需的总时间。

批次贝叶斯优化的最佳初始化