We consider the predict-then-optimize paradigm for decision-making in which a practitioner (1) trains a supervised learning model on historical data of decisions, contexts, and rewards, and then (2) uses the resulting model to make future binary decisions for new contexts by finding the decision that maximizes the model's predicted reward. This approach is common in industry. Past analysis assumes that rewards are observed for all actions for all historical contexts, which is possible only in problems with special structure. Motivated by problems from ads targeting and recommender systems, we study new black-box predict-then-optimize problems that lack this special structure and where we only observe the reward from the action taken. We present a novel loss function, which we call Empirical Soft Regret (ESR), designed to significantly improve reward when used in training compared to classical accuracy-based metrics like mean-squared error. This loss function targets the regret achieved when taking a suboptimal decision; because the regret is generally not differentiable, we propose a differentiable "soft" regret term that allows the use of neural networks and other flexible machine learning models dependent on gradient-based training. In the particular case of paired data, we show theoretically that optimizing our loss function yields asymptotically optimal regret within the class of supervised learning models. We also show our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms on real-world decision-making problems in news recommendation and personalized healthcare compared to benchmark methods from contextual bandits and conditional average treatment effect estimation.

考虑了预测-优化模式的决策制定方法，通过在历史数据上训练监督学习模型，再利用该模型在新环境中进行未来的二进制决策以最大化预测奖励，提出了一种新的损失函数Empirical Soft Regret (ESR)来显著改善模型训练中的奖励，该方法在新闻推荐和个性化医疗决策问题上明显优于现有算法。

黑盒预测优化的渐近最优遗憾