Accurate weather forecasting is essential for understanding and mitigating weather-related impacts. In this paper, we present PuYun, an autoregressive cascade model that leverages large kernel attention convolutional networks. The model's design inherently supports extended weather prediction horizons while broadening the effective receptive field. The integration of large kernel attention mechanisms within the convolutional layers enhances the model's capacity to capture fine-grained spatial details, thereby improving its predictive accuracy for meteorological phenomena. We introduce PuYun, comprising PuYun-Short for 0-5 day forecasts and PuYun-Medium for 5-10 day predictions. This approach enhances the accuracy of 10-day weather forecasting. Through evaluation, we demonstrate that PuYun-Short alone surpasses the performance of both GraphCast and FuXi-Short in generating accurate 10-day forecasts. Specifically, on the 10th day, PuYun-Short reduces the RMSE for Z500 to 720 $m^2/s^2$, compared to 732 $m^2/s^2$ for GraphCast and 740 $m^2/s^2$ for FuXi-Short. Additionally, the RMSE for T2M is reduced to 2.60 K, compared to 2.63 K for GraphCast and 2.65 K for FuXi-Short. Furthermore, when employing a cascaded approach by integrating PuYun-Short and PuYun-Medium, our method achieves superior results compared to the combined performance of FuXi-Short and FuXi-Medium. On the 10th day, the RMSE for Z500 is further reduced to 638 $m^2/s^2$, compared to 641 $m^2/s^2$ for FuXi. These findings underscore the effectiveness of our model ensemble in advancing medium-range weather prediction. Our training code and model will be open-sourced.

本研究解决了中期天气预报准确性不足的问题，提出了一种名为PuYun的自回归级联模型，利用大卷积核注意力机制来提升预测精度。研究结果表明，PuYun-Short在10天天气预报中，RMSE显著低于现有模型，如GraphCast和FuXi，展示了该方法在中期天气预测中的有效性。

PuYun：使用大卷积核注意力网络的中期全球天气预报