Causal Transformers are trained to predict the next token for a given context. While it is widely accepted that self-attention is crucial for encoding the causal structure of sequences, the precise underlying mechanism behind this in-context autoregressive learning ability remains unclear. In this paper, we take a step towards understanding this phenomenon by studying the approximation ability of Transformers for next-token prediction. Specifically, we explore the capacity of causal Transformers to predict the next token $x_{t+1}$ given an autoregressive sequence $(x_1, \dots, x_t)$ as a prompt, where $ x_{t+1} = f(x_t) $, and $ f $ is a context-dependent function that varies with each sequence. On the theoretical side, we focus on specific instances, namely when $ f $ is linear or when $ (x_t)_{t \geq 1} $ is periodic. We explicitly construct a Transformer (with linear, exponential, or softmax attention) that learns the mapping $f$ in-context through a causal kernel descent method. The causal kernel descent method we propose provably estimates $x_{t+1} $ based solely on past and current observations $ (x_1, \dots, x_t) $, with connections to the Kaczmarz algorithm in Hilbert spaces. We present experimental results that validate our theoretical findings and suggest their applicability to more general mappings $f$.

本研究解决了变压器在自回归学习中下一个令牌预测能力机制不明的问题。我们提出了一种新的因果核优化方法，能够明确地通过之前及当前的观测预测下一个令牌，并展示了其实验结果验证了理论发现，表明该方法对一般映射的适用性。

理解变压器在下一个令牌预测中的普适性