Artificial intelligence (AI) advances and the rapid adoption of generative AI
tools like ChatGPT present new opportunities and challenges for higher
education. While substantial literature discusses AI in higher education, there
is a lack of a systemic approach that captures a holistic view of the AI
transformation of higher education institutions (HEIs). To fill this gap, this
article, taking a complex systems approach, develops a causal loop diagram
(CLD) to map the causal feedback mechanisms of AI transformation in a typical
HEI. Our model accounts for the forces that drive the AI transformation and the
consequences of the AI transformation on value creation in a typical HEI. The
article identifies and analyzes several reinforcing and balancing feedback
loops, showing how, motivated by AI technology advances, the HEI invests in AI
to improve student learning, research, and administration. The HEI must take
measures to deal with academic integrity problems and adapt to changes in
available jobs due to AI, emphasizing AI-complementary skills for its students.
However, HEIs face a competitive threat and several policy traps that may lead
to decline. HEI leaders need to become systems thinkers to manage the
complexity of the AI transformation and benefit from the AI feedback loops
while avoiding the associated pitfalls. We also discuss long-term scenarios,
the notion of HEIs influencing the direction of AI, and directions for future
research on AI transformation.

人工智能的发展和 ChatGPT 等生成性人工智能工具的快速采用为高等教育带来了新的机遇和挑战。本文以复杂系统方法为基础，通过建立因果回路图（CLD）来描述典型高等教育机构中人工智能转型的因果反馈机制。文章识别和分析了几个增强和平衡的反馈回路，展示了高等教育机构受人工智能技术进步推动，投资于人工智能以提升学生学习、研究和管理，并提到了高等教育机构面临的竞争威胁和若干政策陷阱，需要领导者成为系统思考者以应对人工智能转型的复杂性和从中获益。此外，还讨论了长期情景、高等教育机构对人工智能方向的影响以及未来研究方向。