Electric load forecasting is an indispensable component of electric power
system planning and management. Inaccurate load forecasting may lead to the
threat of outages or a waste of energy. Accurate electric load forecasting is
challenging when there is limited data or even no data, such as load
forecasting in holiday, or under extreme weather conditions. As high-stakes
decision-making usually follows after load forecasting, model interpretability
is crucial for the adoption of forecasting models. In this paper, we propose an
interactive GAM which is not only interpretable but also can incorporate
specific domain knowledge in electric power industry for improved performance.
This boosting-based GAM leverages piecewise linear functions and can be learned
through our efficient algorithm. In both public benchmark and electricity
datasets, our interactive GAM outperforms current state-of-the-art methods and
demonstrates good generalization ability in the cases of extreme weather
events. We launched a user-friendly web-based tool based on interactive GAM and
already incorporated it into our eForecaster product, a unified AI platform for
electricity forecasting.

我们提出了一种交互式 GAM 模型，它不仅具有解释性，还可以结合电力行业的特定领域知识，提高性能。这种基于提升的 GAM 利用分段线性函数，并通过我们高效的算法进行学习。在公共基准和电力数据集中，我们的交互式 GAM 优于当前最先进的方法，并在极端天气事件的情况下表现出良好的泛化能力。我们还推出了一个用户友好的基于交互式 GAM 的网络工具，并将其整合到我们的 eForecaster 产品中，这是一个统一的电力预测 AI 平台。

交互式广义可加模型及其在电力负荷预测中的应用

Interactive Generalized Additive Model and Its Applications in Electric  Load Forecasting

In this paper, we investigate the robustness of an LSTM neural network
against noise injection attacks for electric load forecasting in an ideal
microgrid. The performance of the LSTM model is investigated under a black-box
Gaussian noise attack with different SNRs. It is assumed that attackers have
just access to the input data of the LSTM model. The results show that the
noise attack affects the performance of the LSTM model. The load prediction
means absolute error (MAE) is 0.047 MW for a healthy prediction, while this
value increases up to 0.097 MW for a Gaussian noise insertion with SNR= 6 dB.
To robustify the LSTM model against noise attack, a low-pass filter with
optimal cut-off frequency is applied at the model's input to remove the noise
attack. The filter performs better in case of noise with lower SNR and is less
promising for small noises.

本文研究了 LSTM 神经网络在电力负荷预测中针对噪声注入攻击的鲁棒性问题，并且提出了采用低通滤波器来降低噪声攻击的影响。