Counterfactuals are often described as 'retrospective,' focusing on
hypothetical alternatives to a realized past. This description relates to an
often implicit assumption about the structure and stability of exogenous
variables in the system being modeled -- an assumption that is reasonable in
many settings where counterfactuals are used. In this work, we consider cases
where we might reasonably make a different assumption about exogenous
variables, namely, that the exogenous noise terms of each unit do exhibit some
unit-specific structure and/or stability. This leads us to a different use of
counterfactuals -- a 'forward-looking' rather than 'retrospective'
counterfactual. We introduce "counterfactual treatment choice," a type of
treatment choice problem that motivates using forward-looking counterfactuals.
We then explore how mismatches between interventional versus forward-looking
counterfactual approaches to treatment choice, consistent with different
assumptions about exogenous noise, can lead to counterintuitive results.

本文研究的是针对选项干预的计数事实正反向两种方法 —— 干预方法与正向方法的偏差是如何导致直觉上不符合的结果的，该研究发现当系统中的外生噪声具有一定的单位特异性结构和 / 或稳定性时，正向方法的使用可以更合适。