Predicting potential risks associated with the fatigue of key structural
components is crucial in engineering design. However, fatigue often involves
entangled complexities of material microstructures and service conditions,
making diagnosis and prognosis of fatigue damage challenging. We report a
statistical learning framework to predict the growth of fatigue cracks and the
life-to-failure of the components under loading conditions with uncertainties.
Digital libraries of fatigue crack patterns and the remaining life are
constructed by high-fidelity physical simulations. Dimensionality reduction and
neural network architectures are then used to learn the history dependence and
nonlinearity of fatigue crack growth. Path-slicing and re-weighting techniques
are introduced to handle the statistical noises and rare events. The predicted
fatigue crack patterns are self-updated and self-corrected by the evolving
crack patterns. The end-to-end approach is validated by representative examples
with fatigue cracks in plates, which showcase the digital-twin scenario in
real-time structural health monitoring and fatigue life prediction for
maintenance management decision-making.

研究设计了一种统计学习框架来预测具有不确定性的加载条件下，疲劳裂纹的增长和构件失效寿命，并通过降维和神经网络等技术处理了疲劳裂纹增长的历史依赖性和非线性问题，通过路径切片和重新加权等技术应对了统计噪声和罕见事件，对疲劳裂纹进行了自更新和自纠正，实时监测结构健康和疲劳寿命预测以支持维修管理决策的数字孪生情景进行了验证。