Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning is an important problem
in settings where experimentation is limited, such as education and healthcare.
But, in these very same settings, observed actions are often confounded by
unobserved variables making OPE even more difficult. We study an OPE problem in
an infinite-horizon, ergodic Markov decision process with unobserved
confounders, where states and actions can act as proxies for the unobserved
confounders. We show how, given only a latent variable model for states and
actions, policy value can be identified from off-policy data. Our method
involves two stages. In the first, we show how to use proxies to estimate
stationary distribution ratios, extending recent work on breaking the curse of
horizon to the confounded setting. In the second, we show optimal balancing can
be combined with such learned ratios to obtain policy value while avoiding
direct modeling of reward functions. We establish theoretical guarantees of
consistency, and benchmark our method empirically.

针对强化学习领域中的 Off-policy Evaluation 问题，本研究提出了一种基于无法观测到的干扰变量的无限时域 Markov 决策过程方法，并通过使用代理估计稳态分布比率以及最优化平衡等阶段性的方法，从 Off-policy 数据中识别政策价值。