Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider
sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete
sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance
sampling---to impute the missing events in an incomplete sequence. We develop a
trainable family of proposal distributions based on a type of bidirectional
continuous-time LSTM: Bidirectionality lets the proposals condition on future
observations, not just on the past as in particle filtering. Our method can
sample an ensemble of possible complete sequences (particles), from which we
form a single consensus prediction that has low Bayes risk under our chosen
loss metric. We experiment in multiple synthetic and real domains, using
different missingness mechanisms, and modeling the complete sequences in each
domain with a neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner 2017). On held-out incomplete
sequences, our method is effective at inferring the ground-truth unobserved
events, with particle smoothing consistently improving upon particle filtering.

本文提出了一种基于粒子平滑的方法，通过使用一种基于双向连续时间（LSTM）的可训练提议分布来填补残缺的序列，从而推断出遗漏的事件序列，该方法在多个合成和真实领域实验中表现出色，在推断地面真实未观察到的事件方面十分有效。