Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed
cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof.
Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks.
Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand,
thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them
in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)
neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide
range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs
outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and
its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in
order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the
same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach
outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

本文针对具有宽泛的预测过程监控任务，研究了采用 LSTM 神经网络建立的高准确度模型，证明该方法在预测下一个事件、任务以及剩余时间方面优于现有技术。

利用 LSTM 神经网络进行预测性业务流程监控

Predictive Business Process Monitoring with LSTM Neural Networks

Business process enactment is generally supported by information systems that
record data about process executions, which can be extracted as event logs.
Predictive process monitoring is concerned with exploiting such event logs to
predict how running (uncompleted) cases will unfold up to their completion. In
this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring framework for estimating
the probability that a given predicate will be fulfilled upon completion of a
running case. The predicate can be, for example, a temporal logic constraint or
a time constraint, or any predicate that can be evaluated over a completed
trace. The framework takes into account both the sequence of events observed in
the current trace, as well as data attributes associated to these events. The
prediction problem is approached in two phases. First, prefixes of previous
traces are clustered according to control flow information. Secondly, a
classifier is built for each cluster using event data to discriminate between
fulfillments and violations. At runtime, a prediction is made on a running case
by mapping it to a cluster and applying the corresponding classifier. The
framework has been implemented in the ProM toolset and validated on a log
pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital.

提出了一个基于事件日志的预测性流程监控框架，在运行中的案例中，通过将其映射到群集并应用相应的分类器，估计一个给定谓词在完成时将被满足的概率，该框架已在 ProM 工具集上实现并在一家大型医院的癌症治疗日志上验证。