The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in
probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to
account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions
on out-of-sample data. Using probit regression as an illustrative working
example, this paper presents a general and effective methodology based on the
pseudo-marginal approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo that efficiently addresses
both of these issues. The results presented in this paper show improvements
over existing sampling methods to simulate from the posterior distribution over
the parameters defining the covariance function of the Gaussian Process prior.
This is particularly important as it offers a powerful tool to carry out full
Bayesian inference of Gaussian Process based hierarchic statistical models in
general. The results also demonstrate that Monte Carlo based integration of all
model parameters is actually feasible in this class of models providing a
superior quantification of uncertainty in predictions. Extensive comparisons
with respect to state-of-the-art probabilistic classifiers confirm this
assertion.

本文提出了一种基于伪边缘法的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗通用策略，有效地解决了使用高斯过程先验的精确贝叶斯推理和模型参数不确定性导致的数据预测问题。此外，Monte Carlo 积分可用于预测中的所有模型参数，这在高斯过程的层次统计模型中具有重要意义，并与最先进的概率分类器进行了广泛的比较。