Public opinion surveys are vital for informing democratic decision-making,
but responding to rapidly changing information environments and measuring
beliefs within niche communities can be challenging for traditional survey
methods. This paper introduces a crowdsourced adaptive survey methodology
(CSAS) that unites advances in natural language processing and adaptive
algorithms to generate question banks that evolve with user input. The CSAS
method converts open-ended text provided by participants into Likert-style
items and applies a multi-armed bandit algorithm to determine user-provided
questions that should be prioritized in the survey. The method's adaptive
nature allows for the exploration of new survey questions, while imposing
minimal costs in survey length. Applications in the domains of Latino
information environments and issue importance showcase CSAS's ability to
identify claims or issues that might otherwise be difficult to track using
standard approaches. I conclude by discussing the method's potential for
studying topics where participant-generated content might improve our
understanding of public opinion.

该研究介绍了一种众包自适应调查方法（CSAS），结合自然语言处理和自适应算法的进展，生成随用户输入而演变的问题库。该方法将参与者提供的开放性文本转换为李克特式项目，并应用多臂赌博机算法来确定应优先考虑的用户提供的问题。这种自适应方法允许探讨新的调查问题，同时在调查长度方面成本最小化。在拉丁裔信息环境和问题重要性领域的应用展示了 CSAS 识别可能难以通过标准方法追踪的主张或问题的能力。最后讨论了该方法在研究参与者生成内容可能提高我们理解公众意见的主题方面的潜力。

众包自适应调查

Crowdsourced Adaptive Surveys

An important aspect of developing LLMs that interact with humans is to align
models' behavior to their users. It is possible to prompt an LLM into behaving
as a certain persona, especially a user group or ideological persona the model
captured during its pertaining stage. But, how to best align an LLM with a
specific user and not a demographic or ideological group remains an open
question. Mining public opinion surveys (by Pew Research), we find that the
opinions of a user and their demographics and ideologies are not mutual
predictors. We use this insight to align LLMs by modeling both user opinions as
well as user demographics and ideology, achieving up to 7 points accuracy gains
in predicting public opinions from survey questions across a broad set of
topics. In addition to the typical approach of prompting LLMs with demographics
and ideology, we discover that utilizing the most relevant past opinions from
individual users enables the model to predict user opinions more accurately.

通过挖掘公众意见调查的数据，结合用户观点、人口统计学和意识形态信息来对 LLMs 进行定位，从而实现更好地预测各种话题下的公众观点，同时发现利用个体用户的相关过往意见可以提高预测准确性。