The point estimates of ReLU classification networks---arguably the most
widely used neural network architecture---have been shown to yield arbitrarily
high confidence far away from the training data. This architecture, in
conjunction with a maximum a posteriori estimation scheme, is thus not
calibrated nor robust. Approximate Bayesian inference has been empirically
demonstrated to improve predictive uncertainty in neural networks, although the
theoretical analysis of such Bayesian approximations is limited. We
theoretically analyze approximate Gaussian distributions on the weights of ReLU
networks and show that they fix the overconfidence problem. Furthermore, we
show that even a simplistic, thus cheap, Bayesian approximation, also fixes
these issues. This indicates that a sufficient condition for a calibrated
uncertainty on a ReLU network is "to be a bit Bayesian". These theoretical
results validate the usage of last-layer Bayesian approximation and motivate a
range of a fidelity-cost trade-off. We further validate these findings
empirically via various standard experiments using common deep ReLU networks
and Laplace approximations.

本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯推断的神经网络未来预测方法，该方法通过对 ReLU 网络权重进行近似高斯分布的理论分析和实验验证，同时发现了使用简单的贝叶斯近似方法可以解决 ReLU 网络的过度自信问题。