We present a prototype hybrid prediction market and demonstrate the avenue it
represents for meaningful human-AI collaboration. We build on prior work
proposing artificial prediction markets as a novel machine-learning algorithm.
In an artificial prediction market, trained AI agents buy and sell outcomes of
future events. Classification decisions can be framed as outcomes of future
events, and accordingly, the price of an asset corresponding to a given
classification outcome can be taken as a proxy for the confidence of the system
in that decision. By embedding human participants in these markets alongside
bot traders, we can bring together insights from both. In this paper, we detail
pilot studies with prototype hybrid markets for the prediction of replication
study outcomes. We highlight challenges and opportunities, share insights from
semi-structured interviews with hybrid market participants, and outline a
vision for ongoing and future work.

本文介绍了一个混合预测市场原型，并展示了它为有意义的人工智能协作提供的途径。我们以前提出的人工预测市场作为新的机器学习算法进行建设。通过将人类参与者与机器人交易者嵌入到这些市场中，我们可以汇集两者的见解。本文详细介绍了用于预测复制研究结果的混合市场模型的试点研究，强调了挑战和机会，并分享了与混合市场参与者进行的半结构化访谈的见解，并概述了未来的工作愿景。