Estimation of treatment efficacy of real-world clinical interventions
involves working with continuous outcomes such as time-to-death,
re-hospitalization, or a composite event that may be subject to censoring.
Counterfactual reasoning in such scenarios requires decoupling the effects of
confounding physiological characteristics that affect baseline survival rates
from the effects of the interventions being assessed. In this paper, we present
a latent variable approach to model heterogeneous treatment effects by
proposing that an individual can belong to one of latent clusters with distinct
response characteristics. We show that this latent structure can mediate the
base survival rates and helps determine the effects of an intervention. We
demonstrate the ability of our approach to discover actionable phenotypes of
individuals based on their treatment response on multiple large randomized
clinical trials originally conducted to assess appropriate treatments to reduce
cardiovascular risk.

本文提出了一种潜变量方法，用于模拟异质性治疗效果，并演示其在多个大型随机对照试验中发现个体可操作表型的能力。

带有截尾时间事件的反事实表型学

Counterfactual Phenotyping with Censored Time-to-Events

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have
been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, and determination of
liability. In this paper we present methods for computing the probabilities of
such queries using the formulation proposed in [Balke and Pearl, 1994], where
the antecedent of the query is interpreted as an external action that forces
the proposition A to be true. When a prior probability is available on the
causal mechanisms governing the domain, counterfactual probabilities can be
evaluated precisely. However, when causal knowledge is specified as conditional
probabilities on the observables, only bounds can computed. This paper develops
techniques for evaluating these bounds, and demonstrates their use in two
applications: (1) the determination of treatment efficacy from studies in which
subjects may choose their own treatment, and (2) the determination of liability
in product-safety litigation.

本文介绍了使用 [Balke 和 Pearl，1994] 中提出的方法计算假设查询的概率的方法，其中查询的前提被解释为迫使命题 A 成立的外部行动，并开发了技术来评估这些边界，并展示了他们在两个应用中的使用：（1）从选定自己的治疗方法中确定治疗效果，（2）在产品安全诉讼中确定责任。