In this study, a probability density-based approach for constructing
trajectories is proposed and validated through an typical use-case application:
Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction given origin-destination pairs. The
ETA prediction is based on physics and mathematical laws given by the extracted
information of probability density-based trajectories constructed. The overall
ETA prediction errors are about 0.106 days (i.e. 2.544 hours) on average with
0.549 days (i.e. 13.176 hours) standard deviation, and the proposed approach
has an accuracy of 92.08% with 0.959 R-Squared value for overall trajectories
between Singapore and Australia ports selected.

本文提出了一种基于概率密度的轨迹构建方法，并通过一个典型应用 —— 根据起讫点预测到达时间（ETA），进行验证。ETA 预测基于概率密度轨迹提取的物理和数学规律。该方法在所选新加坡和澳大利亚港口间的整体轨迹预测误差平均约为 0.106 天（即 2.544 小时），标准偏差为 0.549 天（即 13.176 小时）。而该方法的准确率为 92.08%，R-Squared 值为 0.959。