What is the effect of releasing a preprint of a paper before it is submitted
for peer review? No randomized controlled trial has been conducted, so we turn
to observational data to answer this question. We use data from the ICLR
conference (2018--2022) and apply methods from causal inference to estimate the
effect of arXiving a paper before the reviewing period (early arXiving) on its
acceptance to the conference. Adjusting for 18 confounders such as topic,
authors, and quality, we may estimate the causal effect. However, since quality
is a challenging construct to estimate, we use the negative outcome control
method, using paper citation count as a control variable to debias the quality
confounding effect. Our results suggest that early arXiving may have a small
effect on a paper's chances of acceptance. However, this effect (when existing)
does not differ significantly across different groups of authors, as grouped by
author citation count and institute rank. This suggests that early arXiving
does not provide an advantage to any particular group.

研究了在同行评审前发布预印本的影响，使用因果推断的方法分析 ICLR 会议（2018-2022）的数据，发现早期发布预印本可能对论文的接受率有少许影响，但该影响不受作者引用次数和机构排名这些因素的影响。

估计提前上传 arXiv 对论文被接受的因果效应

Estimating the Causal Effect of Early ArXiving on Paper Acceptance

We analyze the online response to the preprint publication of a cohort of
4,606 scientific articles submitted to the preprint database arXiv.org between
October 2010 and May 2011. We study three forms of responses to these
preprints: downloads on the arXiv.org site, mentions on the social media site
Twitter, and early citations in the scholarly record. We perform two analyses.
First, we analyze the delay and time span of article downloads and Twitter
mentions following submission, to understand the temporal configuration of
these reactions and whether one precedes or follows the other. Second, we run
regression and correlation tests to investigate the relationship between
Twitter mentions, arXiv downloads and article citations. We find that Twitter
mentions and arXiv downloads of scholarly articles follow two distinct temporal
patterns of activity, with Twitter mentions having shorter delays and narrower
time spans than arXiv downloads. We also find that the volume of Twitter
mentions is statistically correlated with arXiv downloads and early citations
just months after the publication of a preprint, with a possible bias that
favors highly mentioned articles.

分析了在线响应预印本的方法，通过研究三种响应形式 ——arXiv.org 上的下载，Twitter 上的提及，学术记录中的早期引用，发现 Twitter 和 arXiv 下载是不同的时间模式，并且它们与引用之间存在关联。